probably one of the most abused phrases by the most ignorant number of people is “flatten the curve” (as it relates to the coronavirus)
the problem is not so much the word “flatten” as it is is the word “the”. let me explain:
curve: each measured group has a different “curve”
(if i really dumb this down a lot – it could roughly mean that each country has it’s own “curve” – but this, dumbed down version, is not really what i mean at all)
as the difference in gradients are statistically significant enough to exclude individual weight it is improbable that any intellectual would apply one specific gradient to that of any one specific other gradient.
(yet, this does not stop the “experts” from doing exactly that)
when additional complexity of additional dimensions are added the “the curve”, i stongly suspect that those that have limited understanding of the maths, will adjust their understanding by adjusting the numbers instead of adding additional curves. (for more about this we should wait for the WHO to conclude at least the initial re-infection investigation)
it is possible for a single individual to collect and obtain all the WHO data and to build their own models and the datasets are not even yet big data, it is simple and small data. it is not complex or big data. it is just that: simple data.
what i have learned in this ongoing crisis is that i have seriously underestimated the amount of intellectuals in global society.
what South Africa needs to be doing is to prepare for what is coming and our government is doing that. what South Africans can be doing is to work together. Be extremely grateful that we are South Africans.
just in closing: it is all and well to test test test, but practically, each one of us will ever fall into one of these categories:
* totally immune to covid-19
* in first or second phase of covid-19
* recovered from first or second phase of covid-19
* no exposure to covid-19 but vulnerable
yes, testing as a strategy to inform decisions is important, but never lose sight that covid-19 is extremely viral and it is very probable that the population exposure will not be contained. at a certain point, testing becomes diagnostic and expending money on track and trace will be wasteful and not relevant to keeping it all in balance.
I do not recommend you to visit this commercial website with the spinning casino type boxes of our dead and infected. but, here is the link I am being forced by law, to display as my constitutional right to free speech is restricted: www.sacoronavirus.co.za